Economics News Articles: March 2004

 
 
Welcome to the March set of news articles. March is traditionally Budget month in the UK coming, as it does, just before the end of the tax year. This year is no exception and the Budget was presented by the Chancellor on March 17th. Budgets tend to have fewer surprises these days as many of the measures are either leaked in advance or floated as possibilities in the pre-Budget statement at the end of the previous year. However, it remains the key statement of the government's fiscal policy each year and so it will be well worth looking at news item 11 for further details on the Budget. One change announced prior to the Budget was the extension of the minimum wage to 16 and 17 year olds and we look at this in news item 4. March also saw fairtrade fortnight and we look at the issue of fairtrade, aid and business ethics in news item 13. This month also saw two major reports on the housing market and, given the importance of this market at a macro as well as micro level for the UK economy, we look at these reports in more detail in news item 3.

As ever, we hope you find the articles and questions valuable. Do let us know any feedback you may have about the topics included and any other you would like to see.

Andy Beharrell

 
 Contents 
1.  The hungry dragon – China's insatiable appetite
2.  China – embracing the market
3.  The housing market – a help or a hindrance?
4.  Extension of the minimum wage
5.  Supermarkets – their impact on the environment
6.  Liberalisation of the transatlantic airline industry
7.  Measuring social and economic progress – a new measure
8.  The UK Economy – a health check from the IMF
9.  Inflation – a basket case?
10. Measuring unemployment
11. The 2004 Budget – UK fiscal policy
12. The latte index – an alternative to the Big Mac?
13. Trade, aid and ethics – do they mix?
14. Argentina – will they or won't they pay?

News Item 1: The hungry dragon – China's insatiable appetite


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapters 1, 2
    Essentials of Economics (2nd and 3rd editions) Chapters 1, 2
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapter 2
 
When we start out looking at economics, we always look at the concept of factors of production – land, labour, capital and enterprise. To grow, an economy needs to put in place policies to ensure that they can improve both the quality and the quantity of the factors of production available to them. The article below looks at the impact that China's increasing demand for factors of production has had on world markets. An economy the size of China can have a significant effect on world commodity markets on its own!
The hungry dragon The Economist (19/2/04)

Questions
1. Classify the factors of production mentioned in the article under the headings land, labour, capital and enterprise.
2. Use supply and demand analysis to illustrate the changes shown in the value of the Economist metals index.
3. What negative economic effects would you expect from the changes in commodity prices shown by the article?

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News Item 2: China – embracing the market?


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapters 1, 10 and 11 
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapters 1, 6
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapters 2, 3
 
China has moved slowly but progressively in recent years towards allowing markets a greater prominence in economic activity. They have reduced government intervention and allowed private enterprise to grow. This month the Chinese parliament agreed landmark changes to the constitution that will protect private property for the first time since the 1949 revolution. The first article below looks at this issue, while the second looks at related tax changes that may help encourage people to own their own home. However, increased economic growth and a greater role for the private sector will lead to widening income distribution and the third article looks at the extent to which this is already happening.
China endorses private property BBC News Online (15/3/04)
China may cut home buying costs BBC News Online (15/3/03)
China's wealth gap widens to gulf BBC News Online (26/2/03)

Questions
1. What problems is China likely to face as they move further towards being a free market economy?
2. What policies could the government use to try to reduce the disparities in income distribution between rural and urban areas? What are the disadvantages of these policies?
3. What is the likely impact on the Chinese economy of cutting the cost of home buying?

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News Item 3: The housing market – a help or a hindrance?


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapter 2
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 2
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapters 4, 5
 
The latest report from the Royal Institutions of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) on the housing market suggested that prices rose strongly in February 2004 and argued that there remained a mismatch between supply and demand in the UK housing market. The government has also been concerned about this issue for some time and in March they published a report from Kate Barker (a member of the Monetary Policy Committee) looking at the medium to long term issues facing the housing market. This also suggested a mismatch between supply and demand and argued that 140,000 homes per year would need to be built for there to be an adequate supply of houses.
Radical plan to shake up housing BBC News Online (17/03/04)
UK homebuilding rates too low Guardian (17/03/04)
Housing shortage leads to price hike BBC News Online (17/03/04)
Shortages mean house price rises BBC News Online (17/03/04)

To read the full report from Kate Barker, follow the link below:

Treasury housing market report



Questions
1. What is the impact of a mismatch between supply and demand in the housing market on (a) the housing market and (b) the economy?
2. What values would you expect for the price elasticity of supply in (a) the short term and (b) the long term? Justify your answer.
3. What reforms may be necessary to make the housing market more responsive to "price signals"?

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News Item 4: Extension of the minimum wage


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapter 10
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 5
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapter 17
 
When the minimum wage was introduced it applied only to those 18 and above. The rates set also differed for 18-21 year olds (the development rate) and those aged 22 and over (the adult rate). The rates are currently £3.80 per hour for those aged 18-21 and £4.50 per hour for those over 21. However, this month the government announced that they are extending the minimum wage to those aged 16 and 17 at a rate of £3 per hour. The articles below look at this introduction and the possible impact of the extension of the minimum wage. 
Minimum wage for under-18s BBC News Online (15/03/04)
Business community uneasy at increase in minimum wage Scotsman (16/03/04)
Young workers to get £3 minimum wage Guardian (15/03/04)
Fears as minimum wage for young is increased Telegraph (16/03/04)
Low-paid workers to get pay rise .... Low Pay Commission - press release (19/03/04)


Questions
1. For what reasons may even a significant rise in the minimum wage fail to eradicate poverty?
2. Why, up to now, has the minimum wage had apparently no adverse effects on unemployment?
3. How could firms respond to a rise in the minimum wage in ways that allowed them to retain their current level of profits?

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News Item 5: Supermarkets – their impact on the environment


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapter 11, 12
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 6
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapters 19, 21
 
This month the Liberal Democrats published a report by their environmental spokesman Norman Baker, looking at the impact that supermarkets have on the environment. They found that customers spent £15bn on packaging each year and that supermarket delivery trucks travel the equivalent of two return trips to the moon every day. So what impact is this having on the environment and the economy and what policies can we adopt to try to minimise the environmental impact without constraining economic growth and development? The report itself, the third link below is well worth looking at for detailed figures and information on the environmental effect of current supermarket policy.
Grocery packaging costs £15bn BBC News Online (9/3/04)
How green is your supermarkets Liberal Democrats press release (9/3/04)
How green is your supermarket? Liberal Democrats – full report (Word document) (9/3/04)


Questions
1. What types of market failure are evident from the Liberal Democrats report on the environmental impact of supermarkets?
2. What policies could the government adopt to minimise the increase in external costs resulting from the activities of supermarkets?
3. What impact are the report recommendations (see page 24 and 25 of the full report) likely to have on the economy? 

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News Item 6: Liberalisation of the transatlantic airline industry


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapter 12
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapters 4, 6
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapter 21
 
Negotiations towards an "open-skies" policy have been taking place since June 2003 between the EU and the US. Open skies means that all carriers have free access to transatlantic routes and this type of policy is often referred to as liberalisation of the airline industry as it should help enable freer competition. The European Court ruled in 2003 that Britain was acting illegally in allowing only four airlines to fly on lucrative routes between London and the USA and since then the EU has been negotiating with the USA. However, Britain objects to the policies that will allow US carriers to fly freely on routes within Europe while UK and European airlines are prevented from operating domestic US flights. These negotiations are sure to generate plenty of business for the airline industry and likely to take some time to resolve! In the meantime, the Liberal Democrats have proposed that all planes should pay a green tax (see article 3 below).
Darling reject US open skies plan Guardian (3/3/04)
Guardian special report - airline industry Guardian
All planes - freight and passenger - should pay green tax Guardian (1/03/04)


Questions
1. What benefits are likely to accrue from an open-skies policy for (a) consumers and (b) airlines?
2. What arguments are countries likely to use to oppose liberalisation of their air space?
3. Evaluate the arguments for and against the imposition of a green airline tax. (You may like to use the Guardian Special report on the airline industry and perhaps do some wider web searches).

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News Item 7: Measuring social and economic progress – a new measure


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition), Chapter 13
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 7
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapter 25
 
We conventionally use GDP (or other national income measures) as an indicator of the standard of living of an economy. However, GDP only measures income and so many other indicators of social progress are not included. The New Economics Foundation (NEF) has argued in a recent report that their measure – Measure of Domestic Progress (MDP) – shows that social progress has become disconnected from economic growth. In fact the MDP shows that the best year in the last four decades was 1976! Since then the MDP has failed to reach the same values and fell significantly during the 1980s.
Social progress stagnant as GDP soars New Economics Foundation (16/3/04)
Chasing progress: beyond measuring economic growth New Economics Foundation - full report (March 04)
So was 1976 really Britain's best year ever? Scotsman (17/03/04)
The time of our lives? Science has no formula for happiness Scotsman (21/03/04)
Was 1976 all it's cracked up to be? BBC News Online (17/03/04)


Questions
1. How does the MDP measure differ from GDP?
2. Use the articles to compare and contrast 1976 from an economic and social perspective.
3. What factors need to be taken account in addition to income to give a more accurate measure of the standard of living of an economy?
4. What economic costs are likely to result from faster GDP growth?

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News Item 8: The UK economy – a health check from the IMF


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapter 13
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapters 7, 8, 9, 10
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapters 25, 29, 30
 
Each year the IMF takes a careful look at the state of all the world economies. This month it published its current assessment of the state of the UK economy and, as the BBC article below put it, the IMF is "cautiously optimistic". However, it did express some concerns at the state of the UK public finances and was worried that a collapse in the UK housing market could have an adverse impact. The first two articles below summarise the IMF report, but it may also be worth following the third link below to have a look at the full report. It has detailed data and information about the state of the UK economy.
IMF cautiously optimistic on UK BBC News Online (5/3/04)
IMF predicts 3.1% growth for the UK The Age (Australia) (6/3/04)

You may also want to have a look at the full IMF report (pdf file) for a more detailed assessment of the state of the UK economy.



Questions
1. Why is the IMF "concerned" about the state of the UK's public finances? To what extent have changes in the Budget (see news item 11) helped to address these concerns?
2. What impact is a collapse in the housing market likely to have on the main economic targets of the UK? 
3. Why did the IMF express a concern that pension liabilities may be "higher than projected"? What impact would these higher pension liabilities have on our economic performance? 

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News Item 9: Inflation – a basket case?


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapters 14, 17, 20 and 21
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 10
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapter 25
 
The main measure of inflation in the UK is now the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). This has taken over from the Retail Prices Index (RPI), though figures for the RPI are still published. The CPI and RPI figures are calculated by taking the price changes in a basket of goods and then weighting the price changes according to their importance in the average family's shopping basket. In February inflation fell somewhat unexpectedly and the Office for National Statistics also carried out its annual review of the "basket of goods" that should be included. The first group of articles below looks at the fall in the rate of inflation, while the second group considers the changes in the composition of goods in the basket.
Inflation rate remains stable Guardian (16/3/04)
Cheaper clothes bring inflation down Scotsman (16/3/04)
UK sees inflation fall in February BBC News Online (16/2/04)
Prices surprise takes pressure off rates Guardian (17/03/04)

March also saw a review of the "weights" that are used to calculate inflation and the items that are included in the "basket of goods" used to calculate inflation. The articles below look at the changes in the basket:

'Shopping basket' snapshot of UK BBC News Online (16/3/04)
Nail care in, frozen turkey out Guardian (15/3/04)
Measuring inflation - changes to RPI and CPI baskets Office for National Statistics briefing document



Questions
1. Why is it necessary to weight the goods in the basket to get an accurate measure of inflation?
2. Why will the CPI figure for inflation not be representative for many groups in society? Have a look at the Office for National Statistics site to see what other measures of inflation / price changes they publish.
3. How is the fall in inflation in February 2004 likely to affect the interest rate decision of the Bank of England at their next monthly meeting and why? N.B. Look carefully at the reasons why inflation has fallen in February.

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News Item 10: Measuring unemployment


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapters 14, 17, 20 and 21
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 10
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapter 25
 
It sounds easy to measure unemployment - you simply count everyone who doesn't have a job. Unfortunately, it far more complex than this. In the past unemployment in the UK was measured through a count of all those claiming unemployment benefit - the so-called benefit count method. However, we have now switched to measuring unemployment by a more internationally acceptable method – a survey. The survey is called the Labour Force Survey. However, statisticians, economists and commentators still argue over the exact employment and unemployment figures and the 'true' level of unemployment. The article below from the Economist looks at the issues relating to the measurement of unemployment.
The reserve army Economist (12/2/03)


Questions
1. Why is it important for economists and policy makers to have accurate labour market data, including unemployment figures?
2. What is meant by the "natural rate of unemployment" (see paragraph 2 in the article)?
3. What policies are available to policy makers to try to reduce unemployment (a) in the short term and (b) in the long term?

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News Item 11: The 2004 Budget – UK fiscal policy


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapter 17
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 8
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapter 29
 
The tax year in the UK runs from April 6th to April 5th the following year and so Budgets have traditionally been in March as they set out the government's tax policy for the following year. This Budget is perhaps the last one before an election and so was a cautious Budget, though there were no dramatic giveaways as the Chancellor is very constrained with a high level of public borrowing. He has committed to significant increases in spending on public services, but tax revenue has not been quite as high as expected and he has been in danger of breaking his own "Golden Rule" – that, over the course of the business cycle, borrowing should be only for investment. His room to manoeuvre was therefore very limited.
Budget 2004 BBC News Online Budget pages (March 04)
HM Treasury Budget site HM Treasury (March 04)
Tax: the taboo subject BBC News Online (14/3/04)


Questions
1. What are the key changes in the Budget?
2. Why had the Chancellor set himself a "Golden Rule" to borrow only for investment?
3. What will be the implications for the economy and economic policy-making of public borrowing continuing to rise?

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News Item 12: The latte index – an alternative to the Big Mac?


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapters 14, 17, 20 and 21
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 12
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapter 26
 
For some years the Economist has published a statistic called the Big Mac Index. This is an alternative measure of purchasing power parity in different countries.. Because the Big Mac is almost universally available around the world and the resources used for production are almost identical, it can be a good measure of purchasing power in different countries. However, could this measure be superseded by the "latte index"? Now that Starbucks have opened their first coffee shop in France, perhaps we could use the price of a latte worldwide to measure purchasing power parity? Statisticians of course would disagree, but this may be a fun way to look at what is an important issue – purchasing power parity. 
Burgers or beans? The Economist (15/01/04)
Big Mac Index The Economist


Questions
1. What is purchasing power parity theory?
2. How do differences in purchasing power affect the value of the exchange rate? What other factors affect the exchange rate?
3. How is purchasing power parity used when converting GDP figures to compare them internationally?

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News Item 13: Trade, aid and ethics – do they mix?


Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapter 26
    Essentials of Economics (2 nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 12
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapters 22, 23
 
Developing countries often struggle to compete with the developed world on fair terms and the market power of the large multinationals is often seen as a key factor in constraining further development. The fairtrade movement was set up to try to provide a way for producers in developing countries to get a fair price for their products. March saw 'Fairtrade fortnight' which tried to raise the profile of goods sold under the Fairtrade label. March also saw the publication of a report by Oxfam accusing major sportswear manufacturers of ignoring workers' rights in their rush to get products ready for the summer Olympics. So can free trade ever be fair trade?
How fair trade hit the mainstream BBC News Online (2/3/04)
Fair trade sales may hit £150m BBC News Online (13/3/04)
A modest undertaking Economist (4/3/04)
Staff exploited in Olympic rush BBC News Online (4/3/03)
Sportswear firms to investigate Oxfam sweatshop claims Guardian (4/3/04)
Biz/ed fairtrade fortnight resources Biz/ed

Oxfam has set up a dedicated web site to support the publication of its report about sweatshop conditions in many countries producing goods for the major clothing firms ready for the Olympic Games. It may be worth having a look:

Fairolympics.org Oxfam



Questions
1. What is meant by 'fair trade'?.
2. Why is free trade not always fair trade?
3. What policies could the international community adopt to try to improve conditions for workers in developing countries? (N.B. Why not have a look at the United Nations web site to see what initiatives are currently underway?)

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News Item 14: Argentina – will they or won't they pay?

 
Relevant to:
    Economics (5 th edition) Chapter 26
    Essentials of Economics ( 2nd and 3rd editions) Chapter 12
    Economics for Business (2nd edition) Chapters 28, 29
 
Many developing countries around the world are heavily indebted and some have defaulted on many of their loans. Argentina defaulted on the payment of bonds to many individual and institutional bondholders in 2001–2. The government wants its creditors to accept a 75% reduction in the face value of their bonds, but many creditors are angry with this deal. Argentina has already defaulted on one loan payment to the IMF and a second default may have led to aid being withdrawn. The Argentine President, Nestor Kirchner, left it to the last minute before deciding whether to pay the next loan instalment, but in the end it was paid. For some background on the Argentine debt crisis follow the last link in the list below. For more information on the Argentine crisis, you could also look at the case study in Box 26.6 on page 754 of Economics (5th edition)
Argentina 'pays IMF $3.1bn loan' BBC News Online (9/3/04)
Argentina avoids default at last minute Guardian (10/3/04)
Argentina makes IMF payment The Age (10/3/04)
Q&A: Argentina and the IMF BBC News Online (9/3/04)


Questions
1. Why have many countries defaulted on their loans?
2. Evaluate the economic arguments for and against rescheduling Argentina's debts.
3. Evaluate the economic arguments for and against Argentina being forgiven a significant proportion of its debt. 

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